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Our model is based on the accumulation of the effective temperatures between >= 10°C and <=32°C. In the Northern hemisphere this accumulation starts with the first of January. In the Southern hemisphere it starts at the first of July. We accumulate every measurement in its equivalent for the day (see graph below).  The following thresholds are used for the insect development:

  
*Egg Laying to Egg Hatch = 88
*First Larvae Stage = 60
*Second Larvae Stage = 65
*Third Larvae Stage = 55
*Forth Larvae stage = 45
*Fifth Larvae Stage plus Pupae = 335
*Complete Generation = 650


The graph produced by the model displays the first appearence and duration of the larvae instar 1 to 5 and the presence of adultes in 5 levels.

  
*Level 1: Flight activity, non egg laying
*Level 2: Flight activity with possilbe egg laying.
*Level 3: Flight activity with some egg laying.
*Level 4: Flight activity with reasonable to strong egg laying.
*Level 5: Flight activity with strong egg laying.

The following graph shows the model results for Nitschaberg, Austria in the year 2009. Flight activity of the first generation was predicted to start in the first days of May. Egg laying of the first generation was starting at the Mid to End of May. The second generation occurred in the first decade of August.|Image
 

 


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